Blog 2- Could the Great Crash of 1929 been predicted?

While watching the documentary The Great Crash of 1929 a question occurred to me could the crash have been predicted or are the stock markets movements completely random like Kendall (1953) suggested? It is clear that the stock markets cannot be completely accurately predicted otherwise the  1929 stock market crash and the 2008 crash would never have been allowed to happen, as well as the fact that we'd all be becoming stock brokers and making a fortune. However I do believe that although the stock markets cannot be accurately predicted I do not believe they follow a random walk either and that there must be some hints as to what will occur in the markets. It surely cant be based on luck can it? Well, the USA was thriving for the 10 years following the war and before the crash, consumerism had  changed and so had the stock markets, they were more widely available to the public and newspapers printed what celebrities of the day were investing in so that the public could copy them. However , the good days could not last forever, which is why I believe planning and preparation should have occurred before the crash for a change in fortunes. Although it could not have been predicted the devastating effects the crash would have and cause, in my opinion any logical person could have foresaw the markets changing, it would be naive to believe that the markets would continue to thrive and the fact that they had thrived for so long was sheer luck and fortune.
 The 1929 stock market  crash was known as the six days that changed America, according to the documentary, however if the same crash was to occur today if would take less time due to the increasing speed of information due to ever changing technology. Technology is adapting so much that there is even Artificial intelligence dealing with stocks and shares, that means as soon as new information hits the public domain AI can sell or buy more shares depending on the news.
The stock market crash was preceded  by a 500% increase in the Dow in five years which had created a bull market, where ordinary people were investing in stocks and shares and stock brokers became celebrities according to the documentary. When the stock market began to crash the Government took a laissez faire approach and believed that it was necessary for it to crash. In my opinion this was the worst possible approach the federal government could take, the markets previous to the crash were thriving as a semi strong form of market efficiency , and when the crash started the new public information meant that the markets overreacted, the overreacting markets created panic which created further issues as people rushed to sell their shares. By standing back and not reacting in the beginning the federal government were helpless to react when the great depression followed. The government in my opinion weren’t the only ones to blame, financial advisors and stock brokers should have been prepared for a change in the markets, had they been prepared the markets would still have over reacted for a while but would then have adapted to the changed and would have been truly efficient once again.
Overall, in my opinion the Great Crash of 1929 could not have been predicted in terms of the catastrophic effects it had on America, the stock markets are too vulnerable to news and changes that would have made predicting the crash impossible. However I do believe that a change in the markets could have been foreseen and prepared for as the markets can change suddenly it was irresponsible to believe that the good times could go on.